Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2505 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2505 EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1168 EWR 19:18 → CLT 21:27 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2505 American Flight history →	EWR 06:00	CLT 08:01	5%	3%	0.7%	94%
YX 3635 Republic	EWR 07:05	CLT 08:58	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3547 Republic	EWR 12:55	CLT 14:49	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3493 Republic	EWR 10:30	CLT 12:32	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3504 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:03	CLT 12:07	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 1575 American Flight history →	EWR 07:30	CLT 09:35	8%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 1697 American Flight history →	EWR 13:29	CLT 15:40	8%	3%	0.7%	84%
UA 3533 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:01	CLT 17:10	9%	2%	0.7%	81%
UA 1168 United	EWR 19:18	CLT 21:27	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON