Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3641 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 3641 EWR 08:45 → CMH 10:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2057 EWR 16:05 → CMH 17:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3641 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:45	CMH 10:40	5%	1%	0.6%	88%
UA 3638 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:38	CMH 12:33	6%	1%	0.6%	89%
UA 3545 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 17:57	CMH 19:59	10%	3%	0.7%	79%
UA 3692 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 20:48	CMH 22:52	11%	3%	0.8%	79%
UA 3481 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:55	CMH 20:57	11%	3%	0.8%	77%
UA 2057 United	EWR 16:05	CMH 17:51	16%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON