Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3417 EWR 08:24 → CVG 10:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest YX 3623 EWR 18:06 → CVG 20:13 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3417 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:24	CVG 10:36	6%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 3455 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:59	CVG 16:12	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
YX 3673 Republic	EWR 21:11	CVG 22:54	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
YX 3623 Republic	EWR 18:06	CVG 20:13	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5026 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:45	CVG 11:53	14%	5%	1.4%	86%
DL 5065 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 20:15	CVG 22:27	27%	15%	8.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON