Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 4437 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 06:30	DCA 07:46	16%	10%	3.1%	84%
UA 4446 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 08:09	DCA 09:32	20%	14%	5.4%	80%
UA 4444 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:00	DCA 10:23	23%	7%	2.4%	77%
UA 4172 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 11:00	DCA 12:23	28%	13%	3.7%	72%
UA 4472 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 13:00	DCA 14:23	29%	6%	13.9%	71%
UA 4433 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 14:00	DCA 15:23	40%	24%	4.3%	60%
UA 4432 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 18:10	DCA 19:48	43%	22%	9.6%	57%
UA 4457 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 20:20	DCA 21:53	55%	25%	9.5%	45%
UA 4486 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 15:30	DCA 16:57	58%	23%	4.7%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON