Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1999 at 11:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1999 EWR 11:55 → DEN 14:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1197 EWR 17:12 → DEN 19:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1999 United Flight history →	EWR 11:55	DEN 14:13	9%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 1758 United Flight history →	EWR 07:57	DEN 10:21	9%	2%	0.5%	95%
UA 2455 United Flight history →	EWR 10:00	DEN 12:18	12%	3%	0.5%	83%
UA 2444 United	EWR 14:31	DEN 16:44	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2120 United Flight history →	EWR 14:40	DEN 16:58	15%	4%	0.5%	80%
UA 1729 United	EWR 15:53	DEN 18:10	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1792 United Flight history →	EWR 20:59	DEN 23:28	18%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 407 United Flight history →	EWR 18:49	DEN 21:18	18%	5%	0.5%	69%
UA 1197 United Flight history →	EWR 17:12	DEN 19:45	22%	5%	0.5%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 08:30 → CLE 10:08UA 1833	1h 02m Cleveland	CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246	5h 56m	93%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	50m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 47m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	59m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	5h 50m	92%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON