Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2728 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2728 EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2840 EWR 18:10 → DFW 20:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2728 American Flight history →	EWR 05:51	DFW 08:40	5%	3%	0.8%	95%
UA 1494 United Flight history →	EWR 07:01	DFW 09:59	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 1303 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	DFW 10:51	7%	3%	0.7%	85%
UA 1396 United	EWR 12:53	DFW 15:20	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1796 American Flight history →	EWR 12:30	DFW 14:53	10%	5%	0.7%	75%
F9 2471 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 13:35	DFW 16:27	10%	5%	0.8%	74%
UA 1590 United Flight history →	EWR 15:30	DFW 18:28	12%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 1810 American Flight history →	EWR 17:10	DFW 20:10	16%	8%	0.8%	47%
UA 1277 United	EWR 20:54	DFW 23:38	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2840 United	EWR 18:10	DFW 20:55	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON