Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2596 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 2596 EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2567 EWR 20:25 → DTW 22:38 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2596 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:00	DTW 07:50	3%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 3700 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:40	DTW 10:46	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
YX 3633 Republic	EWR 10:21	DTW 12:16	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3437 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 14:07	DTW 16:07	6%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 2566 Delta Flight history →	EWR 09:55	DTW 11:43	6%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 2577 Delta Flight history →	EWR 13:00	DTW 14:58	6%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 3412 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:22	DTW 23:31	7%	3%	0.8%	75%
YX 3475 Republic	EWR 18:32	DTW 20:27	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2573 Delta Flight history →	EWR 16:50	DTW 18:51	12%	4%	0.6%	74%
UA 1637 United	EWR 16:16	DTW 18:04	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 2567 Delta Flight history →	EWR 20:25	DTW 22:38	16%	6%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON