Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: B6 1505 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day B6 1505 EWR 06:00 → FLL 09:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 685 EWR 15:28 → FLL 18:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:00	FLL 09:00	5%	1%	0.8%	82%
UA 1364 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	FLL 10:05	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2151 United	EWR 08:43	FLL 12:29	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2759 United	EWR 11:53	FLL 15:13	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 08:00	FLL 11:04	11%	2%	0.8%	72%
UA 1998 United	EWR 10:24	FLL 13:45	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 651 United Flight history →	EWR 13:08	FLL 16:18	15%	3%	0.8%	81%
UA 435 United	EWR 19:39	FLL 22:55	23%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 8165 United	EWR 17:36	FLL 20:37	28%	6%	0.9%	no record
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 15:28	FLL 18:30	28%	8%	1.2%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON