Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 3576 EWR 16:16 → GSO 18:04 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest UA 4509 EWR 12:05 → GSO 13:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3576 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:16	GSO 18:04	10%	3%	0.6%	79%
G7 4591 GoJet	EWR 22:09	GSO 00:12	16%	3%	1.3%	no record
G7 4406 GoJet	EWR 22:14	GSO 00:17	16%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 4509 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 12:05	GSO 13:49	16%	3%	1.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON