Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1366 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1366 EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 8277 EWR 19:51 → IAD 21:09 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1366 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAD 07:22	3%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 1618 United	EWR 09:52	IAD 11:09	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2301 United	EWR 15:00	IAD 16:35	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1784 United Flight history →	EWR 21:50	IAD 23:19	14%	3%	0.7%	79%
UA 8277 United	EWR 19:51	IAD 21:09	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON