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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 492 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 492 EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2127 EWR 20:00 → IAH 22:57 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time
Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 492 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 IAH 08:41 5% 2% 0.6% 92%
UA 2438 United Flight history → EWR 07:05 IAH 09:50 7% 2% 0.6% 94%
UA 2204 United Flight history → EWR 12:36 IAH 15:34 7% 3% 0.6% 89%
UA 332 United Flight history → EWR 07:59 IAH 10:44 8% 3% 0.6% 87%
UA 556 United Flight history → EWR 10:53 IAH 13:38 11% 3% 0.5% 77%
UA 1830 United EWR 14:01 IAH 17:00 12% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 2815 United Flight history → EWR 15:40 IAH 18:46 15% 5% 0.6% 69%
UA 2425 United Flight history → EWR 20:50 IAH 23:43 15% 5% 0.6% 75%
UA 2782 United Flight history → EWR 17:54 IAH 20:55 15% 6% 0.6% 69%
UA 2127 United Flight history → EWR 20:00 IAH 22:57 16% 5% 0.6% 68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566 48m Detroit DTW 12:31 → IAH 14:18DL 1307 5h 23m 91% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:44UA 2468 49m New Orleans MSY 15:33 → IAH 16:59UA 1532 5h 26m 87% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON