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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Charlotte, leaving 04:54, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Jackson on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → EWR 04:54 → CLT 06:51AA 1113 1h 59m Charlotte CLT 08:50 → JAC 11:09AA 1175 8h 15m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:57 → DEN 10:23UA 1758 3h 32m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 9h 28m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 46m Chicago ORD 09:28 → JAC 11:43UA 2176 7h 43m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 7h 00m 90% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:10 → JAC 20:04DL 315 10h 04m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → EWR 08:15 → SFO 11:29UA 1777 2h 07m San Francisco SFO 13:36 → JAC 17:01UA 1593 10h 46m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → EWR 11:55 → DEN 14:13UA 1999 2h 07m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 7h 58m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120 2h 11m Denver DEN 19:09 → JAC 20:47UA 785 8h 07m 96% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:57 → DEN 10:23UA 1758 52m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 6h 49m 60% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON