Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1207 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1207 EWR 06:00 → JAX 08:31 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1391 EWR 15:24 → JAX 18:03 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1207 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	JAX 08:31	8%	2%	1.2%	92%
UA 2678 United Flight history →	EWR 13:01	JAX 15:42	19%	4%	1.3%	82%
UA 1391 United Flight history →	EWR 15:24	JAX 18:03	26%	6%	1.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON