Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2147 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 2147 EWR 06:15 → LAS 08:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1283 EWR 20:28 → LAS 23:06 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2147 United	EWR 06:15	LAS 08:55	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1631 United Flight history →	EWR 09:00	LAS 11:28	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 2828 United	EWR 09:29	LAS 11:58	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1864 United Flight history →	EWR 12:25	LAS 14:53	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 446 United Flight history →	EWR 10:54	LAS 13:21	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
UA 2387 United Flight history →	EWR 14:30	LAS 17:05	12%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 1539 United	EWR 16:22	LAS 18:40	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1283 United	EWR 20:28	LAS 23:06	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 16m	97%	91%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 31m Dulles	IAD 08:53 → LAS 10:49UA 1323	7h 49m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	97%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON