Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2434 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2434 EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest UA 353 EWR 18:45 → LAX 21:36 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2434 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	LAX 08:53	7%	2%	0.6%	79%
B6 1573 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 07:00	LAX 09:49	9%	2%	0.7%	76%
UA 2445 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	LAX 09:37	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 212 United Flight history →	EWR 12:00	LAX 14:38	11%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 2692 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	LAX 11:53	11%	2%	0.6%	69%
UA 2679 United Flight history →	EWR 10:45	LAX 13:41	11%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 8114 United	EWR 14:20	LAX 17:18	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1355 United	EWR 16:22	LAX 19:17	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 287 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 19:29	LAX 22:40	16%	5%	0.8%	74%
UA 2238 United Flight history →	EWR 16:00	LAX 18:42	18%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 2641 United Flight history →	EWR 17:30	LAX 20:40	18%	5%	0.7%	72%
UA 712 United Flight history →	EWR 20:10	LAX 23:04	22%	6%	0.7%	59%
UA 353 United Flight history →	EWR 18:45	LAX 21:36	23%	6%	0.7%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 55m	97%	90%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 03m Dulles	IAD 08:25 → LAX 11:02UA 1734	8h 02m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	7h 40m	95%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON