Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1641 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1641 EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1331 EWR 21:55 → MSP 23:59 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1641 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:15	MSP 08:13	3%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 283 United	EWR 07:11	MSP 09:16	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2864 Delta Flight history →	EWR 11:47	MSP 13:45	8%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2895 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:00	MSP 17:08	12%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 424 United	EWR 13:59	MSP 15:51	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2866 Delta Flight history →	EWR 18:45	MSP 21:00	15%	6%	0.7%	75%
UA 1331 United Flight history →	EWR 21:55	MSP 23:59	17%	4%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON