Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3694 EWR 09:44 → MYR 11:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3589 EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3694 Republic	EWR 09:44	MYR 11:47	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1067 United	EWR 07:43	MYR 09:52	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 3589 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:55	MYR 18:03	11%	2%	0.7%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON