tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → ONT 13:48AA 2635 10h 57m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 56m Salt Lake City SLC 11:09 → ONT 12:12DL 1173 7h 57m 91% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:56 → DEN 10:18UA 1758 1h 07m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 51m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 17:59 → SLC 21:21DL 2033 1h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 8h 49m 91% 83%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:30 → SFO 16:28UA 1227 2h 38m San Francisco SFO 19:06 → ONT 20:45UA 2478 10h 15m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:40 → SFO 13:51UA 648 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 16:18 → ONT 17:52UA 393 10h 12m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:15 → PHX 09:28AA 1282 1h 31m Phoenix PHX 10:59 → ONT 12:30AA 2661 8h 15m 94% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON