Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 530 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 530 EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 3931 EWR 19:10 → ORD 20:39 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 530 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ORD 07:42	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 3027 American Flight history →	EWR 06:50	ORD 08:34	5%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 3185 American Flight history →	EWR 05:30	ORD 07:15	5%	2%	1.0%	88%
UA 2488 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	ORD 09:43	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 2754 United	EWR 07:18	ORD 08:54	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2290 United Flight history →	EWR 09:20	ORD 11:04	9%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 752 American	EWR 10:36	ORD 12:06	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1525 United Flight history →	EWR 10:24	ORD 12:06	9%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 2053 United Flight history →	EWR 13:10	ORD 14:53	12%	3%	0.6%	77%
UA 1439 United	EWR 10:58	ORD 12:21	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2416 American	EWR 14:15	ORD 15:30	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2788 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	ORD 16:28	16%	4%	0.6%	50%
UA 1206 United Flight history →	EWR 21:52	ORD 23:20	19%	4%	0.7%	71%
UA 546 United Flight history →	EWR 20:19	ORD 22:06	22%	5%	0.7%	69%
UA 1871 United	EWR 20:50	ORD 22:27	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 254 United Flight history →	EWR 18:15	ORD 20:10	25%	6%	0.6%	44%
UA 661 United Flight history →	EWR 16:45	ORD 18:34	26%	5%	0.6%	50%
AA 1691 American Flight history →	EWR 17:21	ORD 18:49	26%	6%	0.8%	54%
UA 3931 United	EWR 19:10	ORD 20:39	30%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON