Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day G7 4401 EWR 08:35 → ORF 09:56 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4525 EWR 21:15 → ORF 22:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4401 GoJet	EWR 08:35	ORF 09:56	11%	2%	1.2%	no record
UA 4524 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 15:44	ORF 17:21	14%	3%	1.2%	79%
G7 4525 GoJet	EWR 21:15	ORF 22:40	16%	3%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON