Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1613 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 1613 EWR 06:30 → PDX 09:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 560 EWR 18:45 → PDX 21:48 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1613 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	PDX 09:25	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
AS 643 Alaska	EWR 07:19	PDX 10:01	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 560 United Flight history →	EWR 18:45	PDX 21:48	16%	5%	0.6%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	52m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → PDX 10:42DL 2415	7h 27m	95%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 04m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 36m	97%	90%
United Details →	EWR 07:51 → DEN 10:15UA 1758	1h 12m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	8h 18m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON