Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2646 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2646 EWR 06:30 → PHX 08:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2321 EWR 20:18 → PHX 22:40 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2646 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	PHX 08:42	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 1282 American Flight history →	EWR 07:15	PHX 09:28	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 2825 American Flight history →	EWR 10:57	PHX 13:14	11%	3%	0.6%	77%
UA 370 United Flight history →	EWR 13:07	PHX 15:25	11%	3%	0.6%	97%
UA 1289 United	EWR 10:15	PHX 12:29	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 676 United	EWR 18:10	PHX 20:46	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2612 United	EWR 18:41	PHX 21:16	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2321 United	EWR 20:18	PHX 22:40	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 29m Dulles	IAD 08:51 → PHX 10:33UA 709	7h 33m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 28m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	1h 04m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	6h 55m	95%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON