Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3666 EWR 14:12 → PIT 15:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3667 EWR 20:12 → PIT 21:26 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3666 Republic	EWR 14:12	PIT 15:41	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 3591 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:00	PIT 17:37	7%	2%	0.7%	84%
YX 3469 Republic	EWR 17:48	PIT 19:15	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 3682 Republic	EWR 21:12	PIT 22:28	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 3403 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:29	PIT 21:06	11%	2%	0.8%	82%
YX 3667 Republic	EWR 20:12	PIT 21:26	15%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 4396 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 13:05	PIT 14:35	17%	12%	4.8%	83%
UA 4390 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:15	PIT 10:45	18%	8%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON