Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3665 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 3665 EWR 07:45 → PWM 09:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest UA 1397 EWR 22:06 → PWM 23:29 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3665 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 07:45	PWM 09:11	5%	2%	0.7%	98%
UA 3685 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 11:59	PWM 13:25	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
YX 3573 Republic	EWR 18:43	PWM 20:19	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
G7 4464 GoJet	EWR 16:46	PWM 18:10	18%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 1397 United Flight history →	EWR 22:06	PWM 23:29	24%	9%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON