Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 3473 at 09:14 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day YX 3473 EWR 09:14 → RDU 10:58 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2359 EWR 18:52 → RDU 20:34 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3473 Republic	EWR 09:14	RDU 10:58	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1890 United Flight history →	EWR 07:15	RDU 08:56	5%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1410 United	EWR 11:04	RDU 12:48	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 464 United	EWR 15:31	RDU 17:17	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1975 United Flight history →	EWR 17:40	RDU 19:31	19%	8%	0.6%	72%
UA 2359 United Flight history →	EWR 18:52	RDU 20:34	25%	8%	0.6%	73%
DL 5124 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:30	RDU 11:18	14%	12%	5.6%	86%
DL 5260 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 14:30	RDU 16:20	21%	8%	3.9%	79%
DL 5222 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 19:29	RDU 21:25	43%	23%	8.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON