Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2766 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2766 EWR 07:01 → SAN 10:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 573 EWR 18:29 → SAN 21:37 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2766 United	EWR 07:01	SAN 10:04	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1826 United Flight history →	EWR 09:33	SAN 12:18	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 1626 United Flight history →	EWR 17:01	SAN 19:52	16%	4%	0.7%	78%
UA 1102 United	EWR 19:35	SAN 22:34	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 573 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 18:29	SAN 21:37	18%	3%	1.2%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660	8h 21m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	55m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 27m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	59m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	7h 38m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON