Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 515 EWR 12:20 → SAT 15:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 3878 EWR 16:40 → SAT 19:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 515 United Flight history →	EWR 12:20	SAT 15:21	10%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 591 United Flight history →	EWR 09:29	SAT 12:30	11%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 3878 United	EWR 16:40	SAT 19:40	16%	5%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 03m Dulles	IAD 08:25 → SAT 10:59UA 1789	5h 59m	97%	90%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492	58m Houston	IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa	5h 46m	95%	84%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	48m Charlotte	CLT 08:49 → SAT 10:50AA 2889	5h 50m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON