Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3599 EWR 10:29 → SDF 12:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3415 EWR 18:17 → SDF 20:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3599 Republic	EWR 10:29	SDF 12:49	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 3609 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:25	SDF 00:00	7%	2%	0.8%	79%
YX 3405 Republic	EWR 15:29	SDF 17:32	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 3415 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:17	SDF 20:42	11%	3%	0.8%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON