Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2115 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2115 EWR 06:00 → SFO 09:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1844 EWR 18:00 → SFO 21:28 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2115 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	SFO 09:09	6%	1%	0.8%	85%
UA 1960 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	SFO 09:59	10%	2%	0.8%	72%
UA 1777 United Flight history →	EWR 08:15	SFO 11:29	10%	3%	0.8%	72%
UA 1593 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	SFO 12:14	12%	3%	0.7%	50%
UA 648 United Flight history →	EWR 10:40	SFO 13:51	13%	3%	0.7%	72%
UA 1343 United Flight history →	EWR 11:50	SFO 15:01	13%	3%	0.7%	68%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	EWR 13:30	SFO 16:28	14%	4%	0.7%	73%
UA 2328 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	SFO 17:48	14%	5%	0.7%	68%
UA 2004 United Flight history →	EWR 16:09	SFO 19:25	14%	3%	0.7%	78%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SFO 20:37	16%	5%	0.8%	62%
UA 1558 United Flight history →	EWR 19:20	SFO 22:59	20%	4%	0.7%	52%
UA 1844 United Flight history →	EWR 18:00	SFO 21:28	20%	5%	0.8%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 19m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 17m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 25m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON