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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 1h 52m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 46m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 34m Chicago ORD 09:16 → SJC 11:46UA 307 8h 46m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834 11h 06m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 28m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:15 → PHX 09:28AA 1282 1h 59m Phoenix PHX 11:27 → SJC 13:26AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 9h 11m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:51 → DEN 10:15UA 1758 1h 19m Denver DEN 11:34 → SJC 13:07UA 1256 8h 16m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → EWR 07:25 → SEA 10:35AS 299 50m Seattle SEA 11:25 → SJC 13:30AS 658 9h 05m 71% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON