Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2143 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2143 EWR 08:00 → SJU 12:04 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest UA 1543 EWR 19:45 → SJU 23:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2143 United Flight history →	EWR 08:00	SJU 12:04	15%	4%	0.7%	69%
UA 1556 United Flight history →	EWR 09:46	SJU 13:45	16%	4%	0.7%	77%
B6 1889 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 11:18	SJU 15:14	19%	5%	0.8%	80%
UA 1543 United Flight history →	EWR 19:45	SJU 23:50	26%	8%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON