Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1009 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1009 EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 2033 EWR 17:59 → SLC 21:21 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1009 Delta Flight history →	EWR 07:15	SLC 10:13	7%	2%	0.5%	81%
UA 646 United	EWR 07:32	SLC 10:27	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2033 Delta Flight history →	EWR 17:59	SLC 21:21	18%	6%	0.6%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	7h 20m	94%	85%
United Details →	EWR 07:57 → DEN 10:21UA 1758	1h 19m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963	7h 16m	97%	84%
American Details →	EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185	56m Chicago	ORD 08:11 → SLC 10:37AA 3129	7h 07m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON