tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1926 United EWR 18:39 SMF 21:46 17% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 54m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 22m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 51m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:51 → DEN 10:15UA 1758 1h 30m Denver DEN 11:45 → SMF 13:17UA 2673 8h 26m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:00 → DEN 12:18UA 2455 3h 45m Denver DEN 16:03 → SMF 17:40UA 1208 10h 40m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 00m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 17:59 → SLC 21:21DL 2033 1h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 8h 45m 94% 87%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:50 → ORD 08:34AA 3027 3h 06m Chicago ORD 11:40 → SMF 14:16AA 1906 10h 26m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON