Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2772 United Flight history →	EWR 08:30	SRQ 11:19	18%	6%	0.6%	66%
UA 1324 United Flight history →	EWR 20:09	SRQ 23:15	28%	9%	2.2%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	5h 44m	98%	86%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	9h 12m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 14:56 → SRQ 16:34DL 3115	6h 03m	97%	84%
American Details →	EWR 04:54 → CLT 06:51AA 1113	1h 34m Charlotte	CLT 08:25 → SRQ 10:21AA 2264	5h 27m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 09:37 → SRQ 13:49DL 478	7h 34m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 18:12 → SRQ 19:50DL 3109	7h 50m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	7h 31m	97%	82%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 10:34 → SRQ 12:39AA 1452	6h 39m	97%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON