Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 3689 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–27%.

Safest bet that day YX 3689 EWR 07:15 → STL 09:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2040 EWR 20:14 → STL 21:42 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3689 Republic	EWR 07:15	STL 09:08	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2311 United	EWR 09:41	STL 11:15	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 3717 Republic	EWR 14:25	STL 15:58	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2040 United	EWR 20:14	STL 21:42	27%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON