Today: UA 601 at 12:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet today UA 601 EWR 12:00 → TPA 15:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1647 EWR 18:53 → TPA 21:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 601 United	EWR 12:00	TPA 15:11	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1273 United Flight history →	EWR 12:20	TPA 15:24	13%	4%	0.7%	81%
UA 2777 United Flight history →	EWR 15:07	TPA 18:07	20%	7%	0.8%	77%
UA 1505 United	EWR 20:27	TPA 23:31	24%	8%	1.1%	no record
UA 1647 United	EWR 18:53	TPA 21:55	26%	10%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON