Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 39m	98%	87%
American Details →	EWR 06:50 → ORD 08:34AA 3027	3h 38m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → TVC 14:26AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	7h 36m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	2h 32m Detroit	DTW 10:22 → TVC 11:33DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	5h 33m	98%	84%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 10:49 → TVC 13:03AA 5575 · flown by PSA	7h 03m	98%	83%
United Details →	EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 21:34 → TVC 23:47UA 2071	7h 02m	96%	70%
United Details →	EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 19:13 → TVC 21:24UA 677	6h 39m	94%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON