Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3368 EYW 18:38 → CLT 20:53 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1816 EYW 14:21 → CLT 16:28 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3368 Envoy	EYW 18:38	CLT 20:53	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3822 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	EYW 15:25	CLT 17:41	16%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 1816 American Flight history →	EYW 14:21	CLT 16:28	18%	5%	0.8%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON