Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, YX 4389 at 12:46, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 4389 Republic	EYW 12:46	DCA 15:48	10%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	6h 23m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	7h 06m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48DL 832	7h 52m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 34m	93%	82%
American Details →	EYW 15:25 → CLT 17:41AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 20:49 → DCA 22:20AA 527	6h 55m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON