Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:24, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Key West). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → DFW 21:35DL 3161	8h 11m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	6h 55m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	5h 54m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 17:42 → DFW 18:56DL 1827	8h 00m	98%	82%
American Details →	EYW 15:25 → CLT 17:41AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Charlotte	CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698	7h 19m	96%	78%
American Details →	EYW 14:21 → CLT 16:28AA 1816	1h 55m Charlotte	CLT 18:23 → DFW 20:01AA 2815	6h 40m	89%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON