Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Charlotte, leaving 15:25, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day


YX 3502 Republic	EYW 14:17	EWR 17:51	15%	10%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 26m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340	5h 57m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	6h 30m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 21:41 → EWR 23:52DL 2527	5h 34m	90%	76%
American Details →	EYW 14:21 → CLT 16:28AA 1816	2h 03m Charlotte	CLT 18:31 → EWR 20:29AA 997	6h 08m	92%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON