Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Philadelphia, leaving 17:29, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Key West). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EYW 17:29 → PHL 20:43AA 4509 · flown by Republic	1h 30m Philadelphia	PHL 22:13 → ORD 23:34AA 2668	7h 05m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	6h 35m	96%	85%
American Details →	EYW 15:25 → CLT 17:41AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 21:16 → ORD 22:18AA 815	7h 53m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894	5h 44m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738	6h 16m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ORD 20:38DL 1139	7h 14m	99%	76%
American Details →	EYW 14:05 → CLT 16:25AA 1816	2h 01m Charlotte	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	6h 46m	93%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON