Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 4509 at 17:29, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4509 American flown by Republic Flight history →	EYW 17:29	PHL 20:43	11%	5%	0.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 41m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	7h 12m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	6h 56m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 16m	94%	82%
American Details →	EYW 15:25 → CLT 17:41AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	3h 49m Charlotte	CLT 21:30 → PHL 23:10AA 1827	7h 44m	100%	80%
American Details →	EYW 14:21 → DFW 16:33AA 305	3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542	10h 14m	96%	72%
American Details →	EYW 14:20 → CLT 16:41AA 1816	1h 18m Charlotte	CLT 17:59 → PHL 19:42AA 423	5h 22m	83%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON