Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1774 FAT 05:00 → DEN 08:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4476 FAT 10:56 → DEN 14:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1774 United Flight history →	FAT 05:00	DEN 08:22	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 5787 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 09:00	DEN 12:34	6%	3%	0.5%	91%
UA 4764 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 12:30	DEN 16:02	8%	6%	0.4%	90%
WN 4476 Southwest	FAT 10:56	DEN 14:15	9%	2%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON