Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1769 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 1769 FAT 05:25 → LAS 06:40 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G4 1716 FAT 00:04 → LAS 00:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1769 Southwest	FAT 05:25	LAS 06:40	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4149 Southwest	FAT 09:31	LAS 10:46	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1771 Southwest	FAT 13:12	LAS 14:27	11%	6%	0.4%	no record
G4 5 Allegiant	FAT 16:57	LAS 18:20	11%	8%	0.6%	no record
G4 1716 Allegiant	FAT 00:04	LAS 00:40	14%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON