tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3345 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → FAT 07:01 SEA 09:40 10% 5% 0.6% 74%
AS 394 Alaska FAT 16:21 SEA 18:37 18% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → FAT 13:11 → PHX 15:03AA 2396 2h 52m Phoenix PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 7h 54m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → FAT 06:00 → SLC 08:41DL 4138 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 49m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → FAT 09:48 → SLC 12:29DL 3786 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817 6h 40m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → FAT 09:00 → DEN 12:34UA 5787 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Denver DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013 8h 59m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → FAT 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1774 3h 13m Denver DEN 11:35 → SEA 13:17UA 2058 8h 17m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → FAT 12:35 → SLC 15:21DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 5h 58m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → FAT 05:41 → DFW 10:59AA 2653 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:17 → SEA 14:31AA 757 8h 50m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → FAT 06:30 → SFO 07:34UA 5338 · flown by SkyWest 3h 18m San Francisco SFO 10:52 → SEA 13:04UA 500 6h 34m 97% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON