Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1168 at 05:23 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1168 FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest B6 2098 FLL 18:40 → ATL 20:43 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1168 Delta Flight history →	FLL 05:23	ATL 07:11	3%	2%	0.7%	97%
DL 1215 Delta Flight history →	FLL 06:33	ATL 08:27	4%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 1603 Delta	FLL 07:21	ATL 09:21	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1326 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:40	ATL 09:33	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
F9 2173 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 06:19	ATL 08:34	10%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 1334 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:31	ATL 13:28	14%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 1094 Delta Flight history →	FLL 12:40	ATL 14:38	14%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 1512 Delta Flight history →	FLL 13:28	ATL 15:32	15%	3%	0.8%	78%
DL 1271 Delta Flight history →	FLL 12:08	ATL 14:00	16%	3%	0.8%	78%
DL 1341 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:32	ATL 17:42	16%	8%	1.2%	71%
DL 2063 Delta Flight history →	FLL 14:30	ATL 16:34	16%	4%	0.8%	57%
B6 1698 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:55	ATL 13:51	22%	7%	0.8%	76%
DL 1413 Delta Flight history →	FLL 16:46	ATL 18:47	23%	8%	1.2%	61%
DL 2345 Delta Flight history →	FLL 18:28	ATL 20:35	23%	9%	1.3%	69%
B6 1798 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	ATL 22:55	27%	12%	1.6%	49%
F9 3013 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 21:50	ATL 23:57	27%	11%	2.1%	46%
B6 2098 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	ATL 20:43	33%	13%	1.6%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON