Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: B6 460 at 20:55, 31%.

Nonstops that day


B6 460 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	BDL 23:59	31%	14%	0.8%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	1h 34m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → BDL 12:13DL 2163	6h 13m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	59m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → BDL 10:30DL 2951	5h 07m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739	6h 20m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082	6h 12m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011	8h 22m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	FLL 16:40 → DTW 19:46DL 1294	1h 44m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → BDL 23:14DL 2989	6h 34m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	FLL 13:28 → ATL 15:32DL 1512	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:56 → BDL 21:19DL 2504	7h 51m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735	6h 55m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON