Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1774 at 10:19 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1774 FLL 10:19 → BNA 11:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1777 FLL 18:37 → BNA 19:48 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1774 Southwest	FLL 10:19	BNA 11:33	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 681 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:05	BNA 13:32	13%	5%	0.8%	57%
WN 1955 Southwest	FLL 13:23	BNA 14:42	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 2581 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	BNA 22:22	19%	12%	2.1%	48%
WN 1777 Southwest	FLL 18:37	BNA 19:48	25%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON