Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1401 at 12:01 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 1401 FLL 12:01 → BOS 15:11 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest B6 70 FLL 18:35 → BOS 21:55 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1401 Delta Flight history →	FLL 12:01	BOS 15:11	13%	3%	0.7%	70%
B6 270 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:08	BOS 13:30	13%	3%	0.8%	36%
B6 470 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:25	BOS 00:47	21%	9%	1.3%	63%
DL 2196 Delta Flight history →	FLL 21:28	BOS 00:36	23%	7%	1.3%	69%
B6 70 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	BOS 21:55	24%	10%	1.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON